Sunday, October 3, 2010
THE WEEK AHEAD; ALSO A LOOK AT FOREX (EUR and GBP).
Using my Elliott Wave Blog fundamentals can give us an edge on predicting future movement of the financial markets.
My stance still remains solid for a high to be in place as of last Thursday. But the lack of follow through, SO FAR, has me preparing for further upside. Perhaps the ending diagonal type pattern will extend a bit further, leading to more choppy rising potential. A sharp blast higher would probably negate this count and make the rise a thrust from a 4th wave triangle with an attempt to get into the 1173-1181 zone I mentioned in previous posts.
In looking at a time relationship analysis of the 5min charts, it shows why I have less confidence in a top being in now than I did going into Friday’s action. That doesn’t mean a top may not be in, but the chances just seem a little less likely at this point.
On the 5min S&P chart, the impulsive decline from last Thursday was 27 bars, or 135 minutes while the ensuing corrective rally has taken 127 bars and 635 minutes. That’s quite a loooooong correction relative to the impulsive wave down it’s correcting. So if a top was in Thursday, I expect heavy selling early Monday morning to eliminate some doubt.
On the daily chart of the S&P you can see the results of divergence on the ROC compared to price. When the ROC has not confirmed a new high or low, it has resulted in a solid reversal in the past. Currently, we have a potential divergence in the ROC from the S&P’s price, so a turn down in price with a nice daily close down should confirm this and help us add to the evidence of a major top being place.
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The daily euro count is looking ready for a top and reversal, although there are no signs of that happening yet. The RSI is entering significantly overbought territory on the daily chart, the rally is looking like a 3 wave move and has entered a strong fibonacci reversal zone. I think when the euro turns, so will stocks.
As I’ve stated before, the daily british pound vs. the dollar chart shows a divergence between the euro vs the dollar daily chart as the euro has been making new highs will the pound has not. The last time this happened, it led to thousands of pips being shed from the EUR/USD. But it also should be noted that the divergence lasted quite a few weeks before the euro fell. So the current divergence doesn’t imply that it will top tomorrow, but I feel that it does show that the major top and decline I’m expecting is imminent.
The hourly charts of the euro and pound also show a divergence. The euro has climbed significantly in this respect while the pound has failed to make new highs and has been flat. So as long as this divergence occurs on the hourly charts, it’s possible we’ll find a top in the euro very soon.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
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