So let us also consider another currency pair that is also not less important then other currencies on the forex market. Not less popular than the Swiss franc currency is the Japanese yen, following the results of a year. From the beginning of May the quotation of yen have grown against dollar more than on 10 %, in relation to euro solidifying of Japanese currency has appeared not less scale. Against debt crisis in Europe, and after, anticipating of a new injection of dollar liquidity from Federal Reserve System of the USA, participants of the market have in large quantities started to leave in yen. Some players bought it considering the traditional “protective” status of yen, others have been forced to contract carry-trade (i.e. to return loans in yens), and the third (in the name of Japanese residents) have simply repatriated capitals in connection with unfavorable macroeconomic conditions in the world. As the total, by the end of October the quotation of pair dollar-yen have closely approached to a mark of 80 yens for dollar, only a few without having held on to historical maxima.
Thus, considering saved problems in the European region and risks of toughening of a monetary policy in China, the Japanese currency still has a potential to growth in 2011. On the other hand, dynamics of profitablenesses of the American and Japanese bonds can become a deterrent. In the end of the expiring year the spread between these papers has extended that again has made attractive game on a difference in interest rates (carry-trade). Thus, next year it will be necessary for traders to track actively a situation in the debt market of the USA, Japan and the Euro area.
As a whole, under our forecasts, pair the dollar-yen next year will preferentially bargain in a range of 79-94 yens for dollar.
People who took the decision to participate in forex trading should start from learning the basics of this market to make sure you do not experience problems with this industry.